Quarterly Economic Measurement · Est. 1990 Baseline
The Family Basket Index tracks what it actually costs a family of four to live decently in suburban America — and compares that cost to what families earn. Updated every quarter. Based on a 1990 baseline.
Key Findings
Not every category grew equally. These five diverged most dramatically from both inflation and income growth.
The pension collapse transferred retirement risk entirely to workers. The family's out-of-pocket retirement cost grew from $1,730 to $17,213 per year — not because retirement got more expensive, but because employers stopped paying for it.
Total family premium costs are up 543%. Workers' dollar contribution jumped from $1,050 to $6,850 annually. The employer share grew too — but it came largely at the expense of wage increases that never materialized.
Center-based care for two children now costs $29,000 per year nationally — exceeding the mortgage payment in most U.S. states. This category entered the basket in 1995 as dual-income families became a near-universal necessity, not a choice.
National median home prices rose 418% from 1990 to 2025. Low rates provided temporary relief in the 2010s, but the post-2022 rate spike erased that decade of progress in four years. Today's buyer pays $2,500/month on a median home.
Vehicle prices and auto insurance have both outpaced income growth substantially. The combined annual cost of owning and operating two cars — payments, insurance, and fuel — has grown from $8,400 to $22,200.
In 1990, the basket cost $9,712 more than median household income — a gap a second income could bridge. By Q1 2026, that gap is $76,082. At a 33% tax rate, closing the gap would require gross income of $238,600 per year.
The Affordability Ratio is the headline number. In 1990, the total basket cost 134% of median household income — challenging, but within reach for a dual-income family. By Q1 2026, that ratio has climbed to 191%. At a 33% effective tax rate, a median family's take-home pay of ~$56,000 covers less than half the basket's cost.
Context
The basket grew twice as fast as income and twice as fast as general inflation. The divergence between market performance and family affordability has never been wider. The FBI measures what the market ignores.
Historical Data
All figures in nominal dollars of the relevant year. Categories with deferred entry are marked with a footnote.
| Category | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groceries (family of 4) | $7,800 | $9,600 | $11,400 | $13,000 | $14,820 | +90% |
| Housing (mortgage, taxes, ins.) | $12,600 | $15,400 | $17,600 | $22,000 | $30,600 | +143% |
| Two Cars (payment, ins., gas) | $8,400 | $12,000 | $16,200 | $19,800 | $22,200 | +164% |
| Healthcare | ||||||
| → Family share (worker contribution) | $1,050 | $1,700 | $3,997 | $5,588 | $6,850 | +552% |
| → Employer share | $3,150 | $5,900 | $9,773 | $15,754 | $20,143 | +540% |
| → Total cost of coverage | $4,200 | $7,600 | $13,770 | $21,342 | $26,993 | +543% |
| School Supplies (2 children) | $400 | $600 | $900 | $1,100 | $1,300 | +225% |
| Annual Vacation (2 weeks) | $2,500 | $3,800 | $5,000 | $5,500 | $7,249 | +190% |
| Holiday Gifts | $500 | $700 | $900 | $1,000 | $1,400 | +180% |
| Childcare (2 pre-K children) † | N/A | $11,000 | $18,000 | $24,000 | $29,000 | +164%* |
| Retirement Security | ||||||
| → Family share (self-funded) | $1,730 | $3,460 | $5,563 | $8,672 | $17,213 | +895% |
| → Employer share (pension/contrib.) | $2,596 | $2,839 | $1,854 | $1,530 | $1,037 | −60% |
| → Total cost of retirement security | $4,326 | $6,299 | $7,417 | $10,202 | $18,250 | +322% |
| Student Loan Payments (2 adults) § | N/A | $2,400 | $4,200 | $5,400 | $6,000 | +150%* |
| TOTAL BASKET COST | $38,550 | $68,100 | $92,387 | $120,844 | $159,812 | +314% |
| Family-Borne Cost Only | $32,480 | $59,360 | $80,760 | $103,560 | $138,632 | +327% |
| † Childcare entered basket in 1995. * % change from 2000 baseline. § Student loans entered basket in 2000. * % change from 2000 baseline. Family-borne cost excludes employer healthcare and employer retirement contributions. | ||||||
| Measure | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Household Income | $28,838 | $41,990 | $49,445 | $68,010 | $83,730 |
| Total Basket Cost | $38,550 | $68,100 | $92,387 | $120,844 | $159,812 |
| Family-Borne Cost | $32,480 | $59,360 | $80,760 | $103,560 | $138,632 |
| Affordability Ratio (total basket) | 134% | 162% | 187% | 178% | 191% |
| Affordability Ratio (family-borne) | 113% | 141% | 163% | 152% | 166% |
| Gross income needed (33% tax assumed) | $57,500 | $101,600 | $137,900 | $180,400 | $238,600 |
| Income gap (needed vs. median) | −$28,662 | −$59,610 | −$88,455 | −$112,390 | −$154,870 |
| Cost Indices (Q1 1990 = 100) | |||||
| FBI Cost Index | 100 | 177 | 240 | 314 | 415 |
| U.S. CPI (for comparison) | 100 | 134 | 162 | 177 | 207 |
| FBI excess over CPI | — | +43 pts | +78 pts | +137 pts | +208 pts |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau (income); KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey (healthcare); Freddie Mac PMMS (mortgage rates); NAR/Census (home prices); USDA Food Plans (groceries); BLS CPI (general inflation). See Methodology for full source list. | |||||
Quarterly Updates
Each quarter, the basket is re-priced from primary sources and the index is recalculated. The log below records each update.
First publication of the Family Basket Index. Establishes Q1 1990 as the base period (Index = 100) and sets the Q1 2026 reading at 415. The Affordability Ratio of 191% represents the widest gap between basket cost and median income in the 35-year record. Key drivers: housing costs up sharply from post-pandemic price levels and elevated mortgage rates (~6.0%); healthcare premiums reach $26,993 total; retirement family-share surges as pension coverage continues to decline. Full methodology document available for download.
Will incorporate Q1 2026 median home price data, updated Freddie Mac mortgage rate average, USDA food plan revision, and BLS CPI figures through March 2026. Healthcare and childcare figures updated annually in October; income data updated annually in September.
Update schedule: The FBI is recalculated each quarter using the sources listed in the Methodology section. Most cost components update monthly or quarterly; income data updates annually each September from the Census Bureau. Annual updates (healthcare, childcare, retirement) are incorporated in the Q4 release each year.
Methodology
A full methodology document is available for download. This section summarizes the key design decisions.
Two adults, two school-age children. Mid-tier suburban America (representative states: Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Colorado). The basket is not a poverty measure — it is a decency measure. It asks what a full-time working family reasonably needs to live with stability, health, and modest comfort.
Track 1 — Cost Index: Raw basket cost indexed to Q1 1990 = 100. Measures cost growth in absolute terms.
Track 2 — Affordability Ratio: Basket cost divided by median household income, expressed as a percentage. This is the headline number.
The retirement category tracks the total cost of retirement security — employer and employee combined — and shows how the share borne by the family has shifted over time. In 1990, ~46% of private-sector workers had a defined-benefit pension. By 2025, under 15% do. This wealth transfer from employer to worker is made visible in the index.
Childcare entered the basket in 1995, when dual-income families became near-universal and formal childcare costs became a material household expense. Student loans entered in 2000, when debt loads crossed a materiality threshold. Both are marked clearly in all tables.
A ratio of 100% means the basket costs exactly what the median family earns before taxes. At a 33% effective tax rate, the take-home pay benchmark is approximately 67% of gross. A basket requiring 150% of gross income therefore consumes nearly all after-tax income — leaving nothing for savings, emergencies, or anything outside the basket.
Mid-tier only: suburban middle America. Where national averages are used (healthcare premiums, mortgage rates), they are applied uniformly. Housing uses national median home prices at prevailing 30-year fixed rates for each year. The index does not track coastal metros or rural areas separately.
About
The Family Basket Index was created to answer a question that standard economic indicators do not: can a hardworking American family actually afford a decent life?
The stock market measures corporate valuations. GDP measures total economic output. The Consumer Price Index measures the average price change of a broad basket of goods. None of these directly answer whether a family of four in suburban Ohio can pay the mortgage, cover healthcare, save for retirement, and still have something left over.
The FBI measures that directly. It tracks ten categories of annual expenditure that together constitute a decent middle-class life — not a luxurious one — and compares the total to what families actually earn. The affordability ratio is the single most honest number in American economic measurement.
The index is updated quarterly from primary government and research sources. The methodology is fully documented and the underlying data is publicly available. All design decisions are explained in the methodology section.
On neutrality: The Family Basket Index does not advocate for any policy position. It measures costs and compares them to incomes. The data speaks for itself. Readers are encouraged to draw their own conclusions and to cite the index in their own work, provided the methodology and sources are clearly attributed.